Swarming some poor Goblins to confirm a big win
A little while back we discussed the significant topic of how to pull out wins in tough games. This week, we're flipping things around to answer the deceptively tricky question of how to win easy games.
Now, you might well ask why this even deserves an article. After all, easy games are - definitionally - easy to win. Just, uh, play the game as normal and win.
In practice though, easy matchups actually do require a somewhat different way of approaching the game. That's because they shift your priorities slightly: no longer are you just trying to win the game, but you're trying to win it reliably and decisively. And trying to achieve those goals actually takes some very different play to just trying to win the game.
This article is going to dive into each of those goals, and will bookend them (as I did last time) with a discussion on the psychological aspects of easy matchups. Hopefully after reading it you'll be well-equipped to win these games as consistently as possible, and with the big scores you really want.
One caveat before we dive in: this is all premised on these games happening in a tournament or in practice for a tournament. If it's just a chill game with your buddies, then don't pull out all the stops to grind them into a 20:0 paste. If anything, you should probably be picking matchups and scenarios to avoid easy games in the first place. But if you're looking to do well at a tournament, then this article should hopefully help you convert those easy matchups into the wins you need.
Step 1: Identify the favourable matchup
We touched on what makes a matchup hard last time, and this is basically the opposite of that. Do you reckon that your army will comfortably outgrind your opponent? Are you going to have an inherently easier time scoring VPs? Is your opponent much newer/less competitive than you? If one or more of those things are true, then you should feel good about the matchup and be looking to apply these principles.
Step 2: Remember that you still need to win it
The first thing to remember about easy matchups is that you can absolutely still lose. If your opponent gets some good dice, or you mess up a few key decisions, or they pull out some trick you haven't spotted, then things can go south fast. This game is actually pretty balanced overall, and most easy matchups are probably closer to 60/40 than 90/10. All of this is arguably even more true when your assessment of the matchup is based on being more experienced than your opponent: sometimes newer players are just really good at the game, and it can be difficult to spot this until you’re actually facing them.
So keep your head in the game, think hard about how you're going to get your VPs, and respect your opponent and their list, lest they surprise you.
Step 3: Assess whether you need a big win or 'just' a win
Once you've gotten into the right mental space, the next thing to do is assess what kind of win you need here. If you're undefeated on the top table in the final round, then any win at all is great. And similarly, getting a small-to-medium win in the first couple rounds often isn't the worst thing in longer events, to avoid matching into top players until later in the event. Sometimes a slight submarine is better than Icarus-ing too close to the sun!
On the other hand, if you're sitting on 4:1 going into that final round, then what you really need is a big win - something that can get you enough TPs to podium or maybe even win the event. Tournament structure will play heavily into this analysis as well, as I'll discuss in a future article. In something like teams (e.g. at Nations Cup), whether you need a big or small win will change by the minute depending on how the rest of the team is fairing!
In any case, this question should then set your game plan for the round. If you need to win by a lot, then that means you should be prioritising a decisive win; if a small win is fine, then what you want is a reliable win.
Once you've come to this conclusion, this guide branches into a guide for decisive wins and one for reliable wins.
Step 4A: Win big
If you're looking for a decisive win, then it's time to put the pedal to the metal and really crush your opponent. Sorry gang, it's gonna get ugly.
This starts by having a plan for how you're going to get and deny every single VP (or almost all of them, at least). It's not enough to be comfortable holding 3 objectives in Domination, you need to be making plays for all 5. Getting a couple cavalry off the board in Recon is nice, but can you get some heroes off in the lategame for those VPs as well? You're probably already planning to break the enemy, but is there any sort of assassination run on their leader that you could be trying for? Every VP you don't get or give up to your opponent in your easy matchups is a waste, and one that you'll need to make up in the inevitable harder fights you'll expect in later games.
VPs are especially valuable to you if they bring you over a particular break point for tournament points. For example, at Clash last year an 8:0 or even 8:4 was worth much more than a 7:0, because you needed at least 8 VPs to get a major victory. As such, getting that 8th VP was extra important, and worthwhile playing hard for. And conversely, if you were able to get above 12VPs then keeping your opponent to exactly 0 was the difference between a major and crushing win, and was thus extra valuable. Kylie made a specific assassination play in our final game to guarantee herself at least one VP, because doing so would prevent me getting the crushing win I would need to top the event.
A key factor that can help you to get all these VPs is actually playing a game to completion. If you think that a game is likely to end with you quartering your opponent, then life is likely to be easier for you on VPs if you do get to that point. After all, if the game ends with the opponent having 40% of their starting strength, then they may well be able to contest lots of objectives and deny you VPs. If they end the game with 15% of their starting strength, then that's going to be much harder for them.
Playing a game to completion doesn't just mean playing fast in the sense of not spending too long arguing over minutiae or thinking about irrelevant decisions, it also means not making the strategic decisions that will slow the game down. Yeah, maybe kiting the enemy for 45 minutes would increase your odds of winning by 5%, but it would make it much harder for you to get the big win you're aiming for. See my game 2 of this tournament ages ago for an example of me spending too long skirmishing and thus failing to get the big win I really could have picked up.
Another trap to avoid when hunting big wins is allowing an opponent to end the game too soon. As discussed last time, a game ending sooner than you expect can often flip a big win into a small one, or even into a loss. Preventing this is primarily a matter of rigorous focus on the opponent's break and (if relevant) quartering points. If you aren't in a position to win big next turn, then you should do your best to prevent your opponent from breaking until you are. That's obviously true for 'break one or two' scenarios, but also for quartering scenarios against lists with moderate-to-low Courage. If your opponent wants the game to end on the following turn, then they can take their break checks in the right order to deliberately disintegrate their own army and quarter themselves. If that happens before you're ready, then bad luck to you.
The only sure way to prevent this is to not break them until you're ready for the game to end within one turn. While it's always possible that you'll get multiple turns to clean up after break (and you can occasionally rely on this in quartering games when the opponent is out of Might and you've got lots of models with shields or that can Barge to guarantee no casualties), in general it's always best to assume that you'll only get one turn after the break. So get those VPs early, and pay attention to the kills!
One final caveat to all of this talk of big wins and getting all the points is that you do ultimately need enough VPs to guarantee the win. Put another way, don't allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good by going too hard for the big plays. If you could get another couple VPs by prolonging the game for two more turns, but would also likely break in that time, then it's probably not worth the risk of everything collapsing with some bad break checks. Big wins are good, but you do still need some reliability.
Step 4B: Win small
Speaking of which, when all you need is a win then it's time to play it safe. Obviously a big win is always better to get than a small win, but trying for one will generally come at the expense of reliability. So in those games where you're prioritising any win far above VP differential, where should you start?
The first step is identifying your easiest collection of VPs that translates into a win for you. As we discussed last article, this involves assessing what the minimum you need to win is, and then ruthlessly pursuing that. A key part of that pursuit is removing any unnecessary variance.
To illustrate what I mean here, let's say that you're running Men of the West against Erebor Reclaimed in Recon. You've got Gwaihir and the main clash is likely to happen deep in their half, so you're likely to win comfortably on VPs. At this stage, you're mostly aiming to lock in that win by removing risk.
First things first, that means getting Gwaihir off the board. Yeah, he may well be able to pick off a few stragglers on his way out, and maybe knock some of their heroes prone with Hurls, but ultimately the priority should be guaranteeing that he gets off the board. If he ends up leaving the table with full resources, that's still 13VP and thus very worthwhile.
And once he's off and you've secured those winning VPs, you're looking to secure the rest of your VPs as best as you can. You probably can't avoid breaking (in fact, you likely want to, in order to end the game fast and guarantee your 13VPs from Gwaihir), but you still need to hold your army together as a coherent force to prevent your opponent slipping any models off the board. That means keeping Elessar alive, which means playing him conservatively. Yes, he's devastatingly powerful and well-capable of duelling Thorin, but that's still a noticeable risk and one that you just don't have to take. As I discussed in this article back in the day, when you don't need to take a duel to win you generally just shouldn't. Same deal with risking your banner in scenarios that award VPs for keeping it alive. If a boring, conservative gameplay will get you the win reliably, then that's what you want every time.
An example of this in practice is my second game at Nations Cup, where my White Hand was up against a terrifying Assault on Lothlorien list in Divide and Conquer. I worked out early on that if I swung hard into one half of the enemy list I would likely be giving up the centre and at least one of the side objectives to my opponent. However, if I could kill his leader and keep Saruman alive near the centre, then that would be 5VP basically locked in. Assuming I could contest the three objectives (easy enough with 8 Crebain and Grima) then I was guaranteed at least a draw if I could achieve this. Add in the break/unbroken I was likely to pick up and I was nearly locking in the victory the team needed. As it happened, Ben rolled appallingly at points and I was able to pivot to an 18:0 thrashing, but fundamentally I had locked in some kind of win from quite early in the game.
Other examples might be simply refusing to engage in games where you have the shooting or banner advantage, or where you have the mobility/numbers to win in the last five minutes anyway. If the default outcome of a game where nothing much happens is that you win by 2VP, then simply not allowing anything much to happen may well be the play. If nothing else, feinting that you'll do this for a few turns can often be enough to force an opponent into overcommitting and getting torn apart (letting you get the big win more reliably than if you'd directly pursued it!).
Step 5: Don't take your foot off the gas
And finally, don't let your opponent get back into a winning position. MESBG is a game that can swing rapidly with a handful of misplays or some spiking dice, and any winning position is ultimately quite fragile.
They key to avoiding this is not to get complacent, and to continue respecting your opponent. Assume that they are still playing hard to win (or at least minimise the scale of the loss), and do them the honour of smacking them into the ground for it. Take every opportunity you are given and keep playing tight, and remember that the Lord of the Rings is, at its core, an underdog story.
Conclusion: It ain’t over till the fat lady (the weaker army) sings (is quartered)
MESBG being as balanced a game as it is (for all the outrage over everything from Crebain to Dragons to Dwarf Rangers), there are very few really reliable matchups. Any winning scenario is always going to be one that the dice gods (and player skill) can take away at any moment.
But for all that, some matchups are just easier than others. And playing into these matchups takes a very different set of skills than winning tighter games. So keep your head in the game, and play hard for that decisive or reliable win until the final die is rolled.
Feel free to share any of your best tips for winning favourable matchups in the comment. And until next time, may you never let your opponent pull out a sneaky win from behind!
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