Top 5(ish) armies of the new meta

 

Time to analyse some data!

Tabletop Admiral’s new feature to log games has been taken up enthusiastically by the community this edition, and we now have a juicy 4000 or so data points to erroneously draw conclusions from. To that end, let’s have a look at the Top 5(ish) armies of the new meta!

The boring caveats

First things first, go and read this article if you haven’t for all the reasons why you shouldn’t take winrates as the be-all-and-end-all of army analysis. To which I’d add the extra point that the sort of just-so analysis I’m about to indulge in is famously self-fulfilling, so take it with some extra grains of salt.

But it’s fun, so I’m doing it. I am making some fops to good practice though by only including factions with at least 50 games logged in the main list, with factions that didn’t reach that being relegated to honourable mentions at best. This means that we have at least some grounds to say that these lists are doing well, although the sample sizes are still small enough that we should be hesitant about taking them too seriously. We’re still at the stage where a single player going 5:0 at a tournament can shift the winrates of a faction by 3-4%, which is nearly the gap between first and fifth on this list. So, grain of salt.

Also, I wrote this article when we only had results from the first 1500 games logged. Andrew has now opened up the dataset for constant updating, which is excellent but has changed up some of the results slightly. The overall order remains pretty consistent, but some of these numbers have changed slightly since I wrote the article.

With all that said, let’s dive into the honourable mentions, which are factions that had a good enough winrate to make it into the Top 5 but hadn’t had enough games logged to be confident. Starting off with a sleeper pick, we have…

 

Honourable mention 1: Army of Carn Dûm

22 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	64
0-600	63
>600	67

This faction has really flown under the radar so far, largely because they were awful last edition. But the buffs in the edition transition have been substantial, ranging from F6 on Aldrac (with easy access to F7) and 3 Fate, access to Hill Trolls with all the monster buffs, and a powerful bonus of +1 FV for all warriors on the charge. That’s F7 Hill Trolls and F4 Orcs/Warg Riders/Carn Dûm warriors, which is a massive buff to the list as a whole. The base warriors remain overcosted (aside from the Orcs, who love free access to F4), but with those buffs I can see why the list is proving able to put up some good showings.

Honourable mention 2: Buhrdur’s Horde

32 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	63
0-600	69
>600	56

Honestly, I had to look up both Burhdur and his Horde to see what had changed, because these numbers are not what I would have expected last edition from my playtesting against them.

The big boost has been to Buhrdur himself, who has gone up to F7, picked up a couple more Will, gotten a free reroll and now has a banner effect that can actually trigger for more than one turn. That’s not mentioning the general boosts to monsters, which will have been very nice for both the Hill Trolls and their leader.

Otherwise, the biggest change has been that Ambush is now optional, which is certainly helpful. Being able to bring in a powerful warband anywhere within 1” of any terrain piece is quite a powerful rule, and I imagine it’s extra useful in Supplies and maybe Recon (depending on how TOs are ruling that interaction.

Perhaps the most surprising part of this is that the list is doing better at higher points, which is very contrary to what one might expect of a simple Orc-horde-style list. To my mind that implies the strength is being provided by the Trolls, which is surprising and a positive sign for the edition’s changes to monsters.

A countervailing effect to those monster changes, however, is…

Honourable mention 3: Garrison of Dale

37 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	68
0-600	57
>600	74

This list should be no surprise to anyone who’s looked at their rules this edition, but I was surprised to see them as the very highest winrate of any army with a useful number of games. It does make sense though: the biggest shooting list in a meta that favours shooting, with one of the most powerful army bonuses in the game stacked on top, and moderately  efficient troops to follow it through. It’s not an unbeatable list (see this game for more on that), but it’s very, very tough for most lists to survive.

And indeed, just as I go to post this article I see that Garrison of Dale has now ticked over to 50 games logged. Constant data updates are not kind to a written content creator! That would now put Garrison of Dale into the top spot, so we really do live in the worst of all metas. 

Joint 5^th/6^th: Men of the West

81 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	60
0-600	67
>600	59

Our first true contender must be one of the most improved forces in the entire game. To start with, every single profile received noticeable boosts (with the exception of Gimli), from the warriors to the heroes. Reliable access to F4 makes a huge difference, spear-supporting Rohirrim are able to avoid exposing their D5 to frontline combat for some time, Éomer and Gandalf are much more capable combatants than ever before, and obviously Legolas is even better than ever. More than all of these, Elessar is leaps and bounds more terrifying than last edition, picking up F7, Resistant to Magic, boosted Horselord and a cool anti-magic ring all basically for free. These combine to make him one of the scariest models in the whole game in terms of damage output, boosts to your list and true unstoppability.

The list’s special rules have also seen some big glow-ups, getting reroll 1’s on the For Frodo turn and Dominant (2) for all warriors when nearby a hero. That’s a really powerful buff in 2/6 scenarios, allowing the list to make up for its limited numbers by playing the objectives exceptionally well.

And finally, the restrictions that were hamstringing the list previously have been massively reduced. To start with a small one, heroes like Legolas, Gimli and Gandalf can now field warriors in their warbands, making them dramatically more viable to actually include. You can also now mix-and-match Warriors of Rohan and Minas Tirith, which is a huge quality of life improvement.

Bigger than all of this, you can now take mounts for your heroes. Elessar and Éomer are solid heroes on foot, but devastating ones on horseback, with Elessar’s 25-point armoured horse being one of the best value purchases in the game. Alternatively, you can swap out these excellent options to bring along Gwaihir, who must be one of the most undercosted models in the entire game this edition. That’s a genuinely difficult choice, and one that doesn’t seem to have a single right answer.

Overall, this list is really powerful, with some of the scariest heroes in the game backed up by a battleline that’s perfectly equipped to back them up. The only surprise here is that the winrate is noticeably higher in small games, which is not what once would expect for a list that starts with a minimum-225-point hero. Perhaps a mounted Elessar is simply so powerful and so unanswerable in small games that he can get by with only 1-2 warbands of support?

In any case, moving on to another faction with a big centrepiece hero…

Joint 5^th/6^th: Depths of Moria

118 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	60
0-600	60
>600	60

Coming to our first of the true contenders, with a whopping 118 games logged, we have the Depths of Moria! This powerhouse build has soarded in both popularity and strength this edition, and is the perfect demonstration of the old point that you don’t need unit diversity if you’ve got unit efficiency. Who would have guessed that losing access to overcosted Blackshield models would be made up for by a free 75-point Drum?

It's the board-wide banner rerolls that have really boosted this list, allowing it to viably compete at any points level. That’s reflected in its win-rate, which is comically identical across all points values I looked at. In smaller games, the efficiency of the basic Goblins (possibly supported by the reworked and as-good-as-ever Watcher) makes for a crazy horde, while from about 600 you get to bring along the Balrog with all the advantages that entails. Mr Shadow and Flame truly is unstoppable now, with F10 being literally impossible for most armies to touch. Add in the ability to strike spear supports, a clutch upgrade to Move 8 and the power of Dominant 10, and the Balrog is a force to be reckoned with now.

The list does have two weaknesses, which are likely responsible for holding back the faction to the bottom of this list. First, it’s quite slow, with only the two centrepiece models able to get somewhere fast if the scenario asks for it. And second, it can be quite dependent on the Balrog rolling those sixes, which any Moria player can tell you is not the most reliable thing. Still, with a 60% winrate, this list can clearly cop the occasional whiff.

Speaking of lists with free banner rerolls…

Number 4: Halls of Thranduil

95 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	61
0-600	70
>600	57

They may not have their comically beefy Elves anymore, but this faction is extremely strong. That’s especially true in smaller games, where its 70% winrate reflects the crazy power of its profiles and army rules.

I’ve talked up this list on the blog a couple of times before (here and here), but it is worth re-emphasising quite how good it is. It can have remarkably high numbers for an Elf list thanks to the excellent medium-cost heroes, free banner, and efficient profiles across the board (aside from Palace Guard and Mirkwood Rangers, both of which have continued their proud tradition of being heinously overcosted).

Those solid numbers are, of course, solid numbers of Elves, with excellent stats across the board. And these Elves come with glaives as well, which have gone from being marginally better spears to one of the best wargear options in the game. It turns out that giving an extra Attack (to either win the duel or to wound) to F5 models is really good, who knew? And everyone close to Thranduil is getting +1 to-wound on top of that, letting the list absolutely carve through the enemy once it makes contact.

Overall, it’s basically just a faction without many weaknesses. Decent numbers, excellent shooting, strong damage output, good cavalry options, powerful heroes… the only thing it’s missing is banner VPs, and with Legolas around that may well be true of their opponents as well. Just a great list, and one that you should be planning around.

Number 3: Minas Tirith

50 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	62
0-600	73
>600	45

Our next list is a bit of a surprise, because it didn’t get that much hype when the new edition first released: plain, vanilla Minas Tirith. There’s no fancy flag to rally around here, but apparently the list doesn’t need it, with a crazy 73% winrate in smaller games. Interestingly, this is the only faction on this tier list with a less-than-50% winrate for either big or small games; Minas Tirith is apparently not great above 600, but is excellent below that point.

As a faction, Minas Tirith has a surprising number of different routes to take. Faramir is excellent now, and giving out a bubble of +1 FV and Fearless to Knights (making them F5 on the charge!) is a devastating punch at lower points. Denethor is much improved from last edition, with 2 Might and a free Palantir from the army bonus, while Irolas’ bubble of +1 to wound for Citadel Guard gives the list even more hitting power.

Based on the winrate being better at low points, my read is that larger version of this army that rely on Boromir are likely a trap, and that the above bargain options are the way to go.

And speaking of lists that are truly filthy at low points…

Number 2: Eagles

75 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	65
0-600	73
>600	60

If you’ve been on the internet at all in the last few months, you would have heard the Piercing Cry of Eagle haters decrying the power of this faction. It’s been the single biggest beneficiary of the new edition, with massive boosts to profiles, all the new monster rules, and perhaps the single most powerful army rule in the game.

I won’t spend too much time on this list because I’ve put out a lot of Eagle content and plan to put out even more, so go read that for the full breakdown. The one thing I’ll note is that while the faction is much stronger in smaller games, it is still clearly very powerful above 600, which certainly aligns with my experience. Above 600 it just takes a bit of skill to win with them, whereas in small games… you just win.

Number 1: Army of the White Hand

106 games logged
Points level	Winrate (%)
All	65
0-600	59
>600	68

And finally, perhaps the biggest surprise of the data: Army of the White Hand is the strongest faction in the game!

When the rules were first released, most players picked this list as worse than Muster of Isengard, and with some justification. Yes, its army rules are probably stronger, but you’re trading out all the power of Uruk Warriors and Berserkers for… Wild Men and Orcs? Great.

In fact, when you look across the board at this faction, it feels destined for failure. It’s mostly relying on D3-4 models with no combat heroes whatsoever; how does it not just get minced?

The answer is flexibility. To start with, it can field a really impressive model count, with lots of Might, auto-passing Terror checks, Grima, really scary shooting, and some of the best mobility in the game. You can mix in F4/S4 Scouts en masse, Crebain are genuinely busted, and the raw numbers let you swarm enemies exceptionally well.

Plus, of course, you’ve got Saruman. Not only is his casting excellent, but his three unique spells are all extremely powerful. Lightning allows for anything from assassinating banners, to forcing enemies to spread out on the approach, to sniping backfield objective holders, or just killing a bunch of models. Fearful on the whole enemy army is very powerful, and the fact that it’s a separate check to Terror now probably makes it even stronger. And I hope I don’t need to explain why half Movement on the whole enemy army is great.

Overall, I think that the success of this faction is one of the most interesting points to come out of this data. It strikes me as a quite challenging list to play, and one that is worth continuing to watch as the new edition rolls on.

Well, not that rule, that's not challenging to use. But the rest of the army is

In any case, that will wrap us up for today. But let me know what your big takeaways from the data were, and how your favourite factions are doing.

Until next time, remember to log your games on TTA!