Big winners and losers of the new edition

 

Pictured: two of the biggest winners and losers of the new edition. But which one is which!

With the new rules and the first two army books entirely leaked, and the practice games starting to roll in, we’re finally in a position to start making some assessments of The Meta to Come ™. That starts, first and foremost, by taking a look at what’s improved with the transition between editions, and what is likely to be taking a step back (at least until the final army book is released).

Because I’m optimistic about this edition so far (and an optimist generally), we’re starting with one of the big winners of the edition, which is an overarching…

 

Winner: Army Bonuses

Not many armies got this sort of army bonus last edition!

Last edition, if your army got access to reroll ones or +1 Courage then you counted yourself lucky. Some Legendary Legions brought legitimately powerful buffs along, but most lists had to content themselves with small efficiency boosts.

Gone are those days, however. With the transition to ‘everyone gets a Legion’, the buffs on offer have also dramatically increased in power. The Black Gate Opens now gets to lure heroes around with Sauron’s gaze, Men of the West get damage output buffs and the powerful Dominant (2), Minas Morgul gets Blades of the Dead on most of the army, and even Riders of Théoden gets a powerful new buff. Almost across the board, Army Bonuses have gone up in power, with the only exceptions being a few of the all-hero lists (deservedly, in most cases) and some of the super-broad armies like Battle of the Five Armies. In general, most armies should be expecting a few extra buffs across the board.

If nearly everyone is getting buffed in this way, then is this edition just starting out with powercreep and rules inflation? Not really, because most previously-viable profiles are a tiny bit less efficient now than they used to be. This isn’t universally true, but it feels like a lot of factions have had some of their ‘power budget’ moved from their base profiles to their Army Bonuses.

Is this a good thing? Probably, because it means that GW have more options to play with to make different lists feel different. If a model is efficient on its base profile then it will threaten to outcompete other options in every list it’s in, while if it relies on specific list buffs to be strong then there’s more scope for list diversity. That seems like it definitely could be a great change, assuming that GW are able to follow through and be consistent with it.

Sadly, there have been some victims of the new listbuilding structures, and particularly the split between three different books…

 

Loser: People with book armies

What do you mean that's all there is? Where are all the named heroes, and the Arbalesters, and the Reavers, and the Hasharin? 

Unfortunately, there’s no real way to sugar coat this: if you tend to play armies that feature in the books rather than the movies, then it’s gonna be a dull start to the edition for you. Evil Men are the real losers here, with almost everything either being Legacied or waiting till the next book.

This is a problem that will fix itself with time. In 6 months or so when the next army book is out, I’m sure the initial unpleasantness of people not getting to play their armies will be a distant memory, and it will just be exciting to have a second wave of new (old) toys. But in the meantime… play Dunland I guess?

Winner: Halls of Thranduil

Thranduil showing off some of the boosts that the faction has received this edition by absolutely rinsing Boromir

Moving on to our first specific winner, Halls of Thranduil have received some huge glowups this edition.

I’ve talked through some of their buffs in these two battle reports, but they are substantial. Basic Mirkwood Elves being S4 may not have survived the first FAQ, but their glaives have gone from being a bit overcosted to one of the most efficient pieces of wargear in the game. As well as being Elven-made spears, glaive-wielding Elves effectively get Thorin’s rule to still make a strike after shielding, which is okay on heroes but incredible on warriors. And they can do it without everyone in the fight needing to have a glaive, or can even trade the extra die to win the fight for an extra die to wound if they need the extra hitting power. Huge, huge buffs there, and the rest of the warriors options are as good as ever too. Mirkwood Knights are probably buffed overall, Mirkwood Rangers now have slightly more reason to exist, and Palace Guard are still providing overcosted F6 on a stick.

Heading up this increasingly-efficient core, all three named characters seem to be improved. Tauriel is a little more expensive but gains Sharpshooter and Expert Shot, adding to the army’s overall increase in shooting power. Thranduil has taken some sidegrades but has probably ended up in a better place overall, being cheaper and hitting similarly hard while still providing some crazy buffs just by existing. And Legolas has gone from being one of the best heroes in the game to arguably the best hero in the game, with huge buffs to his shooting prowess for a tiny increase in points. Go have a look at this battle report in particular for a taste of what he can do now.

The army has taken some nerfs, but even these are almost buffs in disguise. Losing access to both a banner and Sentinels really stings, but the net result of this is an army with 4 more models than it would otherwise have access to, and which still has a banner effect anyway. At lower points that’s almost certainly a boost, and at higher points the overall quality of the list should still see it do well.

These guys are my pick for most all-rounded faction of the edition so far, so expect to see them atop a few tournament tables.

Loser: Azog’s Hunters

Probably a fair change, but a really rough one for the faction

Sadly, their movie opponents in Azog’s Hunters have taken some noticeable hits.

Things aren’t entirely gloomy for them, in fairness. They get Morgul Arrows without bringing along Bolg, they get boosts to charging Terror-causing models and they get to move through basically all terrain more easily. Mounted Hunter Orcs get up to A3 on the charge, which makes them very cool but still quite overcosted. And both Yazneg and Narzug have received some useful buffs, albeit at the cost of 20 points and 1 Might, respectively.

Counterbalancing all of this is the huge nerfs to Azog (hit on about 5 different fronts), points increases to Bolg, overall nerf to Fimbul and lack of banner access. Oh, and Many Blades now only triggers on the charge. Just a tiny little nerf that won’t matter, right? Just reducing their damage output and durability by around 50% every second turn – that won’t be impactful, right?

I don’t think that this makes Azog’s Hunters no longer viable, because they continue to bring a very scary-looking horde at low points. And on the turns that they do get to move first they will still be able to swarm and do some big damage. But given how fast the list has always melted when things go against it, I predict some challenging games for my beloved Hunter Orcs into the future.

 

Winner: Minas Tirith

This list looks so much better than last edition, and not just because you can actually use that Gandalf model with Pippin 

Minas Tirith has traditionally been built around Boromir’s banner supporting Fountain Court Guard, creating a F5/D7 wall that could grind through most anything. Unfortunately, both Fountain Court and Boromir’s banner have been nerfed, which is sad for the faction but great for the game. Madril also received a well-deserved-but-minor points hike.

In return for that, basically everything in Minas Tirith got better. All three big heroes are now much scarier, with Aragorn picking up F7, Resistant to Magic and the Ring of Barahir for free, while Gandalf traded some worse casting for a points cut and a huge damage increase (plus the ability to bring along Pippin, which feels like a really legitimate option). Even Boromir is probably in a stronger spot than last edition, with his free pseudo-lance and war horn more than making up for the banner being worse against F5 enemies now.

Supporting them, Faramir has gone from zero to hero, with too many buffs to list (I got caught out recently by the fact that he even has Resistant to Magic now!), and both Denethor and Irolas are much improved overall. And the Warriors and Knights of Minas Tirith are much more interesting with F4 base, allowing the former to create a proper Shieldwall while the latter hit much harder when they’re charging in at F4.

And finally, Minas Tirith has gone from featuring in a handful of niche LLs (Rangers of Osgiliath, Men of the West and Defenders of Fornost) to being in seven powerful lists, each of which emphasise different playstyles and look quite viable. Reclamation of Osgiliath feels particularly solid, with super-Boz and Faramir heading up an efficient core that even gets +1 to-wound on a critical turn. When you get powerful bonuses for a bunch of models that are already solid then you know you’re onto a good thing! Men of the West also looks excellent now, with big buffs to literally every profile in that list and dramatically improved special rules (plus the ability to take either horses or Eagles!).

Minas Tirith looks like it’s in a great place now, with its top build being toned down and everything else being lifted up dramatically. That’s exactly what should have happened here, so great work GW.

 

Loser: Armies without banners

The wording of that first phrase there has really confused some people

Unfortunately, not all armies can bring a hero with a giant undercosted banner. And those armies that can’t bring any banners at all (quite a lot of factions now) are going to suffer somewhat from the changes to banner VPs.

To be clear, those changes aren’t that the VPs for having a banner when your opponent doesn’t are automatic now, because I’ve seen a lot of misunderstandings on this point. To see why, let’s take an example of Reclamation of Osgiliath taking on Halls of Thranduil (which you can see in action here) in To the Death.

Last edition, if these two lists clashed then Gondor would have started the game up 2 VPs for having a banner when Mirkwood didn’t. If Boromir died, then they would have lost those VPs and have been back to 0:0.

This edition Gondor would start on 4VPs: 2 for having a banner and more banners than their opponent, and 2 for their opponent not having any. It’s only that second set of 2VPs that are automatic, and when you think about it this makes total sense; it’s not like a list that started the game without a banner could have one by the end of the game, so of course the points for your opponent not having a banner are automatic. But the points for having a banner aren’t automatic, so if Boromir died, then Gondor would lose 2 VPs for having a banner and having more banners than their opponent, while Mirkwood would gain two VPs for their opponent no longer having a banner. You can see the change (or lack thereof) in the table below:

Game state	Previous edition	New edition
Boromir alive	Gondor winning 2:0	Gondor winning 4:0
Boromir dead	Draw, 0:0	Draw, 2:2

As you can see, the ‘automatic’ change isn’t actually significant, because you can still neutralise banner VPs by killing the enemy banner even if you don’t have one yourself.

The real change to banner VPs is that they’re now in slightly more scenarios, and represent a slightly greater percentage of total VPs than they used to. 20% of the VPs in Destroy the Supplies and To the Death are now for banners, which is about 3.3% more than previously, and there are now 2 VPs for banners in Hold Ground, which had 0 before. Moreover, while only a third of the previous scenarios from last edition are currently present, these include 2/3 of the banner scenarios.

Putting this all together, banner VPs are now worth 8.33% of the total VPs available across every scenario. That’s up from 2.77% previously, so having a real banner is now worth 3 times as much as it was previously.

In saying that, it’s still less than 10% of total VPs. Most games turn on much bigger margins than that, and differences in list power, general skill and matchup/dice luck are likely to make a far bigger impact. Lists without real banners are definitely losers in aggregate, but positive changes to individual armies can easily outweigh this nerf.

Looking at a specific example of this, Depths of Moria has lost access to banner VPs, and there are now more banner VPs. Is Depths worse now? Absolutely not, because Balrog buffs and a free 75-point Drum are worth way more than 8.33% more VPs being available per game. Banners are stronger than ever now, but lists without them can definitely still compete and may even be in better spots than last edition.

 

Winner: Monsters

Is it finally time for these guys to shine? The answer is definitely 'maybe'

And speaking of the Balrog getting buffed, I think that literally every monster except the Cave Troll and perhaps Ogres is in a much stronger position this edition.

Starting with generic changes, monsters that kill a model can make a free strike on its spear supports, giving extra damage output for free and disincentivising players from stacking dice into fights with a monster. Barge is also much improved, with the monster player getting to pick which models make way (a surprisingly big change in practice, I’ve been finding) and automatically move at least 4”. And Hurl has had a side-grade that’s probably a buff for most monsters. It’s no longer a good tool for dismounting a whole line of cavalry, but is instead a laser-guided missile intent on dismounting and knocking down enemy heroes. It’s also great for getting cheeky extra damage when only facing one model (because the hits it deals are all now S6!), for sniping banners, or for taking down enemies running for back objectives/supplies/your board edge. As an avid monster enjoyer who’s now run monsters in nearly a dozen games this edition, I find myself Hurling more often than previously and getting more benefit out of it when I do.

Arguably more significant than those changes is the fact that Heroic Strike getting nerfed and removed from some profiles makes big monsters a much safer bet. The same thing is true with the nerfs to magic (subject to some caveats below), which used to be a classic issue for Trolls and equivalent. And finally, Dominant (x) becoming standard across all monsters is amazing, and makes them much scarier in any non-killing game. Having faced the Balrog in a game of Domination recently, that Dominant (10) is super hard to deal with.

On top of all that, almost all the monster profiles improved in some way. The Watcher took a sidegrade, but Sauron and the Balrog are much better. Literally every Troll except the inexplicably-nerfed Cave Troll took big buffs, and Mumaks look gross to play against now. Fangor seems like it will still struggle with some scenarios, but looks like an absolute bear to push off objectives. And even Gûlavhar – who I expected to be Legacied or at least severely nerfed – seems better than ever, with Dominant (5), Stalk Unseen and a much better Intelligence value than expected (alongside all the standard monster buffs). I am admittedly assuming that his 6” Move is GW getting confused about how they’ve rewritten Fly and he will be back to 12” soon enough, but that seems likely to me.

I still don’t quite know if these buffs get things like Mordor Trolls all the way to viability, but they’re certainly much closer than they’ve ever been before.

 

Loser: Mounted heroes

Big nerf to the financial prospects of this proxy

With these buffs also comes a significant set of nerfs to mounted heroes, from a number of angles. For one, lots of combat heroes now just can’t take horses, with Gil-galad and Elendil suffering badly from this. Moreover, the Hurl changes above and the introduction of Sharpshooter mean that those heroes who can take horses will often find themselves on a clock before they get dismounted.

And finally, in a move that I’ve been calling for since early 2021, horses (and wargs, elks, and pigs) have now gone up 10 points across the board. This is huge, and in concert with the previous changes it means that there are now quite a lot of circumstances in which you don’t want to mount your combat heroes.

In saying that, mounts are still amazing. They massively increase damage output and mobility, and 20 points is still not very many points to buff up your big combat heroes. Horse Lord has also improved, and there are now no ways to dismount a hero with magic without them getting to resist. But overall, if your plan was to slam a bunch of mounted heroes into your opponent, then things are looking much worse for you than before. That plan has been excellent for a very long time, and I’m glad that we’ll have more reasons to try out other options now.

Winner: Eagles

Some Eagles absolutely messing up another of the big winners of the edition

On the other hand, if you wanted to slam a bunch of flying monsters into your opponent, then things are looking much better. The Eagles are beneficiaries of so many simultaneous buffs that I felt they deserved their own category outside of monsters generally.

To start with, every buff I mentioned above is applicable here. The new BPAs are great for them, killing spear supports is excellent, Strike and magic nerfs are great, and Dominant (2-4) makes a huge difference in half of the current scenarios.

On top of these, the existence of Fledglings means that they now have twice as many viable points levels where you’re not leaving points on the table. Just having an extra bird makes a really big difference when it’s relevant, although I am finding the decreased stats impactful enough that I’d only take Fledglings to spend excess points (i.e. I’d rather three Great Eagles than 4 Fledglings).

Gwaihir has also taken some big buffs, with F8 being near-unstoppable now and the third Attack increasing his reliability to an insane degree. Losing Strike is barely an issue for him either; there hasn’t been a single point in the 5 games I’ve played with the list this edition that I would have used it.

Oh, and he gets to stop everything within 6” of him from moving at all for a whole turn. I feel like people aren’t picking up on this ability much online, but it is terrifying to play with or against. Coupled with their 12” Move they can easily hold off on engaging until a turn that they’re moving second, before calling the Piercing Cry to effectively move and charge (and Hurl, and Barge) twice without their opponent getting to respond. It’s faction-defining and game-winning, and it’s feeling nearly impossible to play around so far. Opponents can spread out, but then you just pounce on half their army with all your Eagles and mess them up that way.

Putting all these buffs together, I am absolutely loving the new Eagles, and I think they may be the first all-monster list to be properly viable since the bad old days of Flying Circuses. They won't win every fight with their puny 2 Attacks when charged, but they generally do so much damage on those first two turns (and take so little back) that they can steamroller from there. And with Dominant and Fly, it's not like they're bad at objectives either!

One weakness that does impact them at higher points has also been a little mitigated by the new edition changes...

Loser: Magic

Rumours of his demise have been much exaggerated (u/1Ballada9)

Much has been made about the demise of magic this edition. Perhaps a little too much, in my view. From a broad perspective it definitely does look like magic got worse, but did many individual spellcasters actually go backwards? It's less clear.

Starting with the general changes though, basically all the best spells except for Nature's Wrath and Wrath of Bruinen got noticeable nerfs. Compel is no longer Transfix-plus-movement, Sorcerous Blast is single target only, Fortify Spirit is now just Resistant to Magic, Blinding Light is temporary rather than permanent, Aura of Dismay is now min-Harbinger and Black Dart is now a S6 hit with 6" range that can be resisted by the rider when aiming at the mount. Just looking at these changes, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the age of the caster is over, the time of the combat hero has come. 

Even at the general level, however, there are some nice buffs the other way. Almost every niche spell that didn't get much use last edition has been buffed, and even things like Transfix have received some interesting extra effects. Some of the new spells are also excellent, with Writhing Vines being particularly tasty. And more importantly than any of these, Heroic Channelling has gone from being a 1 Might tax on Blinding Light to a really powerful way to force through spells. Watching Saruman Channelling Sorcerous Blast to knock down the Balrog turn after turn was enlightening, and I think the ability to just guarantee a cast on a 6 is a pretty powerful thing for any caster to have in their back pocket.

Moving to specific profiles, there are gain some eye-catching nerfs. Some spells are harder to cast across the board (Drain Courage, weirdly), some casters have worsened casting values (Gandalf the White and Saruman), and almost all the rerolls to cast are gone (hitting Saruman and the Witch King). Again, these look like big impacts that seriously weaken these powerful casters. 

But again, diving a bit deeper highlights that these nerfs are mitigated by buffs elsewhere. For Gandalf, he's obviously now a much better combat hero, so his weakened casting is more of a shift in roles than a nerf (and comes with a points cut). 

For Saruman, he's also gone down in points, has an improved Palantir, and gets the devastating ability to give a hero -1 to their resist rolls. For lists with 1-2 big heroes that's arguably an upgrade over his casting rerolls, especially with access to Heroic Channelling: your opponent has to hope that they get a natural six on their resist rolls or they'll be burning at least two Might to resist. Ouch! Moreover, the context around Saruman has changed dramatically. Grima is even more oppressive than before, and you can field them both in two excellent lists that seem like legitimate contenders. The fact that you need Saruman for Muster of Isengard and Army of the White Hand (and that both feel really strong at first testing) makes me think we may actually see more of him, rather than less.

These guys are amazing, and probably at their best in Muster of Isengard. That's basically an indirect buff to Saruman

And moving onto the Witch King, losing the old Crown is obviously a big blow. But most versions of him now get A3 for free, and he's now F6 in every list. In that context, losing the Crown is much less of a concern, because you can just throw an extra Will at your first 5 casts and have your casting be even better than before. Given the boosts to monsters, a 200-point Witch King on Fell Beast may now be more powerful than last edition, which feels a bit crazy. And again, the power of Minas Morgul as a list is effectively a boost to the Witch King (although unlike Saruman, that's less of an improvement from last edition; Minas Morgul is great but it's unlikely to reach the heights of Witch King/Sully!). 

There are spellcasters who suffer more than these ones (Galadriel, generic Ringwraiths and Cirdan being the main ones). But there are also ones who probably got boosts, with Radagast in particular looking pretty excellent. 

In that context, it feels less like magic got shafted across the board, and more like there's been a rebalancing and tweaking of some of the casters. 

Celeborn's casting has gotten so much better now, I think it probably makes up for forgetting his sword at home

That brings us to the end of our first winners and losers article. One winner that hasn't been mentioned here is the whole edition, to be honest, because I think there are so many excellent changes bundled in here that I'm really excited to see play out. Any new edition will inevitably come with a teething period and require a few small adjustments (and in this case, the third army book and Matched Play Guide ideally), but the fundamentals of the game look even better than ever now. 

I've enjoyed every one of my dozen or so games in the new edition, and I hope you're all able to look past the teething problems and try the new rules out for yourself. You never know, you might even like them!

Let me know in the comments what you think is looking hot or not this edition, and how you're enjoying it so far.

And until next time, may your best models always be at least 6" from Gwaihir on the Piercing Shriek turn!