The July FAQ has released with truly shocking speed, and boy is it a big one. Games Workshop has gone back beyond the precedents set in previous FAQs to hand out a wide range of buffs to under-performing lists as well as nerfing the oppressive top players. As is standard for these FAQ articles I won’t be covering every change, so do go and read the docs yourself in order to get a grasp of all the minutiae. Instead, I’ll be giving a snapshot of the meta that was, covering off the big changes, and then assessing what they tell us about Games Workshop’s design philosophy for the game and the meta to come. That’s a lot to cover, so let’s dive right in.
The pre-FAQ meta
Before this mammoth set of changes, the headline news was
clear: Men of the West and Army of the White Hand were the two strongest armies
in the game, with Usurpers of Edoras a little behind them. MotW and Usurpers
were noticeably easier armies to pick up and play, which helped to buoy up
their winrates and tournament success, but in my view White Hand remained
clearly stronger in the hands of a good player. MotW could be run in a few
different ways but was best with the Elessar/Gwaihir/Legolas combo, while White
Hand and Usurpers both went as hard on Crebain as they could reasonably afford.
Beneath these three lists were a whole swathe of armies that
could compete but were clearly worse. This segment of the meta was absolutely
packed, including almost every kind of Elf, hordes like Assault on Lothlorien,
Scouts in both forms, Battle of Five Armies in several forms, Khazad-dûm and several
Erebor lists, Reclamation of Osgiliath and Defenders of the Pelennor, Fields of
Celebrant, the Shire, Angmar at least 4 different ways, Moria Dragon lists,
Depths, Harad or Serpent Horde, Minas Morgul and Radagast’s Alliance. These
lists had a lot going for them, but were fairly clearly and unequivocally worse
than the top 2/3 builds.
Beneath this wedge of competitive-but-not-oppressive lists
were a heap of relatively weak lists, including most of Rohan and Mordor in
particular. These lists really did struggle to break through, and probably
needed a little something to tip them over into competition with the somewhat
bigger dogs above them.
That’s all set to change now though, because the top news of
the day is…
Big bird down
Perhaps the biggest change of the FAQ is a massive 50-point
increase to Gwaihir in every list he can be taken in. This was a
heavily-overdue change that could have happened last edition, and it’s entirely
justified. Gwaihir was comically cheap for his value, being arguably better
than a lot of 200-point monsters while letting you bring along an extra
half-dozen warriors for free. He will now be paying an appropriate price for
his excellent profile, although he is now legitimately quite vulnerable to
magic. At 150 points it was never a huge deal if Saruman bullied your flappy
bird all game; at 200 it’s suddenly a very different question.
That said, the one unfortunate aspect of this changes is
that it affects Eagles, Radagast’s Alliance and Thorin’s Company lists just as
much as it does Men of the West and Battle of the Five Armies. The former three
lists really didn’t need any points hikes, and it’s unfortunate that they had
to pay the price for the sins of some meta lists.
Those meta lists are also affected by the change to Legolas,
allowing him to shoot in combat only while the model he’s facing is otherwise
unengaged. The big impact of this is that players facing Legolas can actually
shut him down on turns that they’re moving first by charging both him and a
warrior with one model. That’s not a massive nerf to a comically-strong
profile, but it does make him slightly less of an auto-include in lists
that can bring him.
Putting these two changes together, I think the most affected
list is absolutely Battle of Five Armies. Both of the traditional BoFA lists have
leaned heavily on these two profiles, and the double-monster variants in
particular are dramatically weakened by the points nerf on Gwaihir.
Single-monster builds now have an interesting choice to make between Gwaihir
and Beorn, or perhaps even pivoting to go without either, and any of these
choices seems reasonably viable to me. This is clearly a positive change from
pre-FAQ, where Gwaihir was objectively the correct choice for all BoFA builds.
Men of the West, on the other hand, probably never takes
Gwaihir again in competitive lists. Elessar’s horse has always been worth a lot
more than the 25 points it theoretically costed, and the only reason to leave
it at home was to accommodate a 50-point-undercosted flying monster. Now that
monster is paying a fair price, I think MotW pivots to Elessar/Gandalf or possibly
Three Hunters builds. I can also see an argument for Elessar/Éomer builds at
lower points, especially now that there will be less opposing Legolases and
Gwaihirs to dismount the big heroes.
My assessment is that MotW will continue to be a top meta list, just somewhat toned down from its previous heights. BoFA will be much more affected, and players using it may pivot back towards either Thranduil’s Halls or Erebor lists instead. Other Legolas-abusing lists like Defenders of the Pelennor will probably continue fielding him, but may think a bit more seriously about other options like Strider, Halbarad or Dernhelm.
Little birds also down
The second massive change has been that Crebain are heavily
nerfed, going down a pip of Defence and Wounds. The combination dramatically
reduces their durability, and brings them back to the role of specialist tech
pieces rather than the core of a list. The change to Defence 2 is most significant
against S4 heroes, who can now chip away at them on 3’s instead of 4’s.
Combined with the change to 3 Wounds, this means that a standard S4/A3 hero can
plausibly kill them in one turn, and is quite likely to do so if getting a
charge bonus or spear support. Anyone who has watched helplessly as their
Aragorn fought one 4-Wound bird after the next will be breathing a massive sigh
of relief. And as a seasoned bird-abuser, I can’t begin to tell you how many
1-Wound birds have survived for turns longer than they ought and wrecked total
havoc. No more, says Games Workshop.
Overall, this probably does reduce Crebain to a reasonably
balanced position. They’re still quite useful tech pieces to have access to,
and they’ll remain excellent at hunting down lone models on flanks or flipping
back objectives. But I think lists that take more than a couple are going to
really feel the durability nerfs and be dramatically weaker overall.
As with the Gwaihir changes, these nerfs will affect
different armies very differently depending on their capacity to pivot to other
alternatives. White Hand lists have always had access to efficient cavalry
options like Warg Riders and (especially) Dunlanding Cavalry, and I expect lists
will melt down most of their Crebain into cavalry and Scout upgrades. On
balance that will probably leave White Hand lists only a little weaker than
before, with the biggest impact being at high points where they tended to
really spam out the birds. And needless to say, pure bird-spam lists are solidly
gone with the wind.
In passing, I’ll note that the Grima FAQ is just making an
unintuitive bit of RAW clear, while the half-movement one is funny but not
impactful. Dwarves travelling an additional 0.5” once per game isn’t a
breakpoint on any scenario (e.g. getting to an Heirloom in Convergence one turn
early), so it will be a quality-of-life buff more than anything else.
Usurpers is in an interesting place post-FAQ, being much
more impacted by the Crebain changes than White Hand (because they wanted to
field more Crebain at any points level, and because they don’t have other
mobility options to pivot to) but being dramatically strengthened by access to
a cheap banner. I think on balance the list will be somewhat weaker than
before, but will probably remain a competitive option at lower points at least.
And at high points they will now have access to a Mumakil,
which is a very fun option now. I highly doubt that Mumakil builds will be
competitive in Usurpers, given that Mumaks aren’t that competitive in Harad and
fragile infantry are basically the opposite of what you want to support a Warbeast.
That’s especially true because you’re giving up access to Freca, so those
fragile infantry aren’t even F4. But it’s fun, and I’m really glad GW have
opened up the list in this regard.
In terms of other Crebain lists, Besiegers will be very
grateful for access to a banner and probably won’t be as impacted by the Crebain
nerf because the Orc/Troll trio (i.e. the only reason to field this list)
tended to soak up a lot of the points that would have gone to spamming birds
anyway. The banner is a really big deal here, and I could actually see this
list rise a tiny bit up the competitive rankings. It’s still not, like, good,
but maybe the Troll will get to shine a little more. Even the FAQ on being within
range of objective markers will be a tiny buff to them, although as far as I
can tell it literally only applies to Heirlooms: no other scenario has a range
around objective markers that can be picked up, so the FAQ doesn’t do anything
in games like Seize or Retrieval.
Finally, the Army of Dunland will probably be impacted a
little more than White Hand, because they wanted to spam more birds and their cavalry
options are slightly worse without board-wide reroll ones. Oh well, I don’t
think anyone was taking this list for pure competitive reasons anyway.
The buffs
In absolutely shocking news, these nerfs have been matched
by a wide spread of buffs to underperforming lists. Even more shockingly,
some of those buffs may have actual meta impact.
Starting with minor ones, Imrahil went down a sweet 20
points to return to effectively his points value last edition. Frankly I never
bought into the idea that Imrahil was overcosted (he was probably the only Dol
Amroth model that wasn’t!), but this effectively amounts to a well-deserved drop
for Fiefdoms models as a whole. I would have probably preferred for Knights to
be discounted, seeing as they’re the actually-overcosted part of the package,
but I guess an undercosted hero leading overcosted troops puts us in a similar
spot. Imrahil and a phalanx of Men-at-Arms is probably a decent shout in Fiefdoms
lists now (off-brand Dragon Emperor let’s go!), while Grief of Éomer builds probably
do fit in the big swan boy now. Defenders of the Pelennor and MotW lists still
have better options.
Jumping back to Rohan, Fords of Isen can now field 50% throwing spears! Fords has some legitimately strong rules and heroes, and has been held back by a lack of efficient warrior profiles. The ability to really spam out throwing spears (doubling as normal spears) may shift the needle here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this list putting up some respectable finishes in the future.
More impactfully, the humble Mordor Orc (and its Captains)
has been added to a host of Mordor lists. Legions of Mordor is perhaps least-affected
here, as it will likely remain the home of exclusively skew builds taking
advantage of its variety of profiles. Army of Gothmog gets a significant boost
from being able to fit in more models, but Army of Gothmog is an absolutely
awful list so I expect it to remain fairly subpar.
Where this change is significant, however, is with Black
Gate. Black Gate has some genuinely crazy rules, and while its mandatory Mouth
is pretty mediocre this edition (RIP to a real one), the rest of the list had a
lot going for it. This change will allow them to field Mordor Orc spear supports
instead of Morannons, potentially translating into an extra 6 or 7 models in the
line at mid-points. For a list with army rules that incentivise outnumbering
opponents, that is an extremely big deal. I could see Black Gate lists genuinely
winning events off the back of this change, especially because their Will of
Sauron special rule remains comically-broad in its capabilities. Dismounting
heroes and making them jump off buildings will never not be funny.
Staying on the Orc theme, Angmar Orc Shamans get some mount
options they should never take, while Lurtz and Ugluk can bring along Uruk Shamans
to fire up their boys. Ugluk doesn’t need an Uruk Shaman because he can already
hand out Fearless on demand, but access to Fury is potentially a really big
deal for Lurtz’ Scouts. Terror is a massive issue for a C7+ list with no spear
supports, and even Break checks were pretty scary for Lurtz and the other
heroes. A Shaman basically solves those problems entirely, and I could see one
being worthwhile as the third or fourth hero selection.
Finally, Depths can take Moria Drums as well as Blackshield
ones. This is probably the correct choice at some points levels (probably 800-850,
where you can’t justify the Watcher but already have a horde of Goblins), but does
remain a bit too expensive to be worthwhile fielding in most lists.
Rules clarifications
We got a whole host of rules clarifications and changes with
this FAQ, almost all of which were commonsensical but many of which were nonetheless
necessary. Ridden Wargs are Beasts, Beasts can’t uncover Artefacts, wings don’t
block LoS… Broadly these all went very logically, and lots of little edge cases
were shut down. Clarification on multiple heroes of the same cost in missions
like Breakthrough was sensible, and hero mounts really truly not counting as
heroes for anything was good for game consistency. I’m amused that Thorin III
counts as Thorin for the purpose of Sworn Protector, and I’m glad that the
previous silliness around mounted models and Dragonfire has been cleaned up. The change to how Strength is calculated for stopping Warbeasts from Trampling is interesting, but critically does not allow for models peeled off by charges to be excluded from the calculation, so just covers niche things like Mahud Raiders (a legitimately fun combo).
The only really surprising change here is that models engaged in the same combat as a banner (critically, not spear supports; they’re not engaged in combat) can’t be handed a banner if it dies in that fight. That’s certainly news to me, and will stop me being quite as aggressive with my banner. It was often the correct play to hide the banner and a friend in combat when there was enemy shooting around, so this should make it meaningfully easier to assassinate banners in some games.
Overall meta impact
Putting together these nerfs and buffs, I’d say five main
themes come through:
First, the Gwaihir/Legolas lists are dramatically weakened.
This solidly knocks MotW and BoFA down a peg, although MotW in particular can
adapt quite solidly. I’d say these lists are now distinctly within the
competitive pack, but no longer strike me as oppressive. The Elessar/Gandalf
builds may continue to be ‘a bit much’, but otherwise this problem seems to
have been resolved without the lists being left dead in the water.
Second, I think both White Hand and Usurpers have been
knocked down into the pack without being shattered. White Hand in particular is
likely to stay right near the top of the meta (particularly around its ideal
value of 750-ish points), but I expect it will feel much easier to play
into without the endless unkillable bird waves.
Third, the massive sweep of A-tier lists that were
competitive but distinctly worse than the big dogs are now feeling amazing. It’s
a great day to be a Dwarf or Elf player, for example, and lists like Lothlorien
that were weak into both White Hand and MotW are absolutely celebrating. It’s
perhaps a mixed bag for those like Minas Morgul who were actually relatively strong
into the top two, but overall it’s a brilliant time to be playing one of these ‘nearly-there’
lists.
Fourth, the variety of weaker armies that received some
gentle pushes are all feeling happier than last week, especially given that the
overall power of the meta has come down a little. I don’t think Fords of Isen
or Fiefdoms is really likely to be winning many big events, but Black
Gate seems like it probably could.
And finally, cavalry lists and mounted heroes are celebrating the meta shifts. Gwaihir MotW or BoFA was a horrific matchup for these armies, with Hurls and Legolas dismounting heroes with ease. And the reduction in Crebain, Sarumans and Hatred (Rohan) models at the top of the meta is excellent news for cavalry lists in general. If you were contemplating a few Sons of Eorl or Battle of Fornost combined-arms lists, then now is a great time for it.
Design philosophy
This FAQ is frankly unprecedented. The nerfs to the top of
the meta were nuanced but reasonably predictable, and the many rules
clarifications were competent and thorough but unsurprising. But it’s the buffs
to weaker armies that are most surprising, despite the fact that only one
(Black Gate getting Mordor Orcs) is really gonna shift the needle on
competitive builds. GW frankly never buffs underperforming lists, or at least
it didn’t last edition. The last couple FAQs felt like they were testing the waters
on how this would be received, with things like Army of Thror getting 50%
throwing weapons clearly a prototype for some of the sweeping changes we saw
this week.
Overall, this feels like an FAQ from a much more involved GW
that is willing to meaningfully change the balance of the game from both ends,
using every tool at their disposal.
FAQ rating out of 10
And that, frankly, is amazing. More casual players who would
prefer their books to remain up-to-date for longer may bemoan this shift, but I
think in the long run everyone benefits from a tighter level of competitive
balance. If all the competitive players in your local community feel they have
to run something bird-shaped to compete at tournaments, then those same players
are gonna want to practice those lists at smaller events and in casual games.
If the meta is wide open, then that’s a benefit at the bottom as well as the top
of game.
Overall, I give this FAQ a 9/10. It loses part marks for quite
how easily MotW may be able to pivot, and there are still too many low-hanging
fruit in terms of languishing armies to give it a 10. But in terms of both
ambition and nuance, this is probably the best FAQ I’ve ever seen from Games
Workshop.
It’s a good day to be playing MESBG.
Let me know in the comments how you reckon the meta’s gonna
pan out, and what you’re most excited to try now. Is Fiefdoms finally good now?
Is the Black Gate the new meta menace? Are we all about to be terrorised by the
Brown Riders (massed Angmar Orc Shamans on wargs)? Let me know down below or on
socials.
Until next time, may your army always be one of the ones to watch!
I think you nailed this analysis (as always).
ReplyDeleteBlack Gate is calling to me right now and I agree this is probably the best of the buffs in this round.
Of note Mordor Orcs can now be taken in a list without a compulsory hero (Legions of Mordor). Is Mordor Orc spam viable? No, but it is hilarious.
Thanks for your insights.