Everything has changed, and now we finally have the full
picture. Between substantial listbuilding and Secondaries changes in Nephilim,
sweeping points fixes and then a whole Balance Dataslate, the world of 40k is
a very different place to last week. Still grim, still dark, but
perhaps a little less of both.
As ever, I’ll be formatting this in a winners/loser format,
and also as ever, take this all with the grains of salt it deserves. I have
played only a single game with the new changes, so I could be wrong on everything
and Sisters’ winrates are about to tumble. Finally, I’m looking at this from
the perspective of how likely a faction is to get Top Fours. As a result, a
worse matchup against weaker armies will often be less important than a better
matchup against the top contenders. For most factions, Guard getting a little less awful is way less important than Tyranids not being entirely oppressive.
Without further ado, let’s dive into perhaps our biggest winner…
Winner: Necrons
Necron players, the Day of Awakening has finally come. Long
have you allowed the younger races to rule the meta, but no more!
Necrons get an excellent set of Secondary objectives,
sweeping points cuts, overhauls to their Command Protocols and Core on all
their vehicles (including the Silent King!). Nephilim improved their scoring,
the points mean they have more models on the board, and the Dataslate has
opened the door to whole new realms of jank. Do you want to reanimate the
Silent King’s Menhirs? Go for it! Get fall back and shoot army wide, all game long? Sounds
great! Have full rerolls to hit on all your vehicles? Efficiency town here we
come!
No part of the Necron Codex is untouched by this, and it’s
now a fundamentally different army. Will it be S-tier? I honestly have no idea.
We have never seen quite so many simultaneous buffs to an army outside of a
Codex release, and how they build on each other is almost impossible to
predict. I've played one game with these changes now, and the Necrons felt like a totally different army. A much, much stronger one.
Loser: Tyranids
Speaking of simultaneous hits from many angles, the Tyranids
are the recipients of a multitude of well-deserved nerfs. In descending order
of impact we have the Secondary changes, substantial points increases and some
targeted hits in the Dataslate. Secondaries are big, as now you’re stuck taking
Banners, Warp Ritual and probably Engage most games. Tyranids don’t lend
themselves that well to Engage, and both Banners and Warpcraft are subject to
bad missions or matchups. So you probably have to build for RND as a backup,
which means 160-points of Gargoyles that are otherwise pretty wasted
points. Moreover, you’re not exactly flush with spare points anymore, because
all the top units have increased substantially in price.
On top of this, the solid second tier of the Tyranid Codex (most
of which was also oppressively undercosted) has also been hit, so the logical
places to pivot aren’t there. This is honestly a great call from GW: if they
hadn’t done this, then in a month’s time we’d have had tables crawling with
Carnifexes and Exocrines instead. As it is, the army will be smaller, and will be scoring
less points. Oof.
On top of all that, Hive Tyrants receive a couple of noticeable nerfs.
Firstly, they get hit by the Nephilim changes to army construction, which
incentivizes single Battalion lists. More significantly, if you only field one
and it dies then you lose Synaptic Imperatives, which is huge. That basically
means that if you field one you have to invest in Tyrant Guard, because your
Tyrant’s safety is of critical import. Those Tyrant Guard are themselves less
efficient because they’re probably only protecting one Tyrant now, and the 120
wasted points hit much harder when everything else is a lot more expensive. It’s
a substantial set of changes, that I actually really like. It makes the choice
of whether to field a Hive Tyrant genuinely interesting, which hasn’t been the
case since the book released. On the other hand, I’m contemplating sticking with a
double Patrol, so I can keep a Walkrant safe while still unleashing the Reaper
Flyrant. Sure, I’ll start with 1CP, but that’s fine. Tricky listbuilding
constraints are great, and this change is awesome.
Finally, Adaptive Traits are now… no longer adaptive. This
is bad and I hate it. Not because another nerf was unnecessary (it wasn’t,
Tyranids definitely deserved to be hit at least this hard), but because those
tables are so clearly built with flexibility in mind. No one will ever write
‘ignores Overwatch’ on their army list, but it was an interesting flex choice
in certain matchups. Being able to pivot into niche traits to deal with a
specific matchup was fluffy, it was interesting, and it forced tricky choices.
Now there’s none of that, and I’m sad. Probably the only unaffected build is the ObSec monsters one, which could have basically
written that trait on its army list already. That’s a slim silver lining though,
and I would have really liked this replaced with something like more points
nerfs instead.
Overall, still really happy with the Tyranids changes. They
weren’t nuked from orbit and basically every unit is still viable, but
they’ve copped enough hits that they shouldn’t be anywhere near as dominant. Phew.
Winner: Sisters of Battle
The King is dead, long life the Queen! The Sisters of Battle
didn’t receive much in the way of direct changes: they weren’t mentioned in the
Balance Dataslate, the points cuts make a bigger difference to the faction’s
depth than its power, and the faction-specific Secondaries are still broadly
similar. It’s the indirect buffs where things get wild though. Being able to
take three of the newly-improved Secondaries at once is awesome, and the CP
changes from Nephilim will hit everyone else much more than Sisters. To the
Last and Stranglehold going away is also a relative gain for the nuns,
especially in the Asuryani and Tyranids matchups. Most importantly, those two
matchups (as well as the Harlequins and T’au games) are vastly easier
now with all the hits those factions took.
Sisters were already the 5th best army in the game, and
numbers 1-4 just copped some massive hits. That makes the Adeptus Sororitas the
faction to beat in the new metagame, although hopefully their complexity will stop
them being too oppressive.
Loser: Asuryani
Well, this stings. The Asuryani are hit with a multitude of
minor nerfs here, all of which will eat into their winrate and viability. The
army construction changes were a mixed bag, as the Asuryani don’t really have
any WLTs or relics they mind losing but really hate running Battalions. The
Secondary changes were a bit of a nerf, as only Wrath of Khaine is really
viable for the faction-specific Secondaries and losing TtL is a big blow. Craftworlds
lists can still play Engage, RND/Banners and Warp Ritual/Psychic Interrogation
pretty easily though, so it’s not the end of the world. And the points changes
basically equate to one unit of chaff being cut, which is annoying but not
terminal.
Where things get rough is with the Balance Dataslate. Hail
of Doom becoming All-Consuming is fine and clearly the right call, and Eldritch
Storm’s removal from the Codex is a relatively minor nerf. The hits to Fire and
Fade and Matchless Agility are very, very big though. They mean that it’s
impossible to reliably put a unit into the open, shoot and get back behind
cover (aside from with Hawks). That’s a huge deal, and makes things like
shuriken cannon Windriders much less viable. I genuinely think this is the
biggest deal out of everything that hit the Asuryani this week, and its impact
radically shifts how the army has to play. If you expose a unit, then it’s probably
going to be targetable next turn. Ouch. It’s almost certainly a good thing for
the game, but it’s the worst thing for the Asuryani themselves since the Fall.
Overall, I think the Asuryani will come back from this.
Lists probably won’t change that much, because Hail of Doom is still stronger
than Ulthwé for most builds. I predict more Hawks and less souped-up
Windriders, possibly with a few more double-cannon War Walkers as a stickier
alternative. I imagine the Patrol/Outrider will remain optimal, as Craftworlds
desperately rely on their Fast Attack slots (especially now they’ll be taking
Engage every game), with one Farseer probably turning into Karandras to open up
the Wrath of Khaine game a little more. It’s a noticeably worse list than
before, but its three biggest competitors also fell substantially. That
probably means players who know how to use the list will do almost as well as
before, but may impact on the faction’s performance at the mid tables.
Winner: Orks
One faction that will be absolutely ecstatic to see the reduction
in Hail of Doom’s potency will be the Orks. They’ll also be delighted by the
changes to Waaaaaaagh, which will help them hit harder and survive a
counterpunch. The buggies change is more ‘quality of life’ than a power
booster, as a multitude of factors mean the Speedwaaaaaagh is probably on the
way out (and wouldn’t have the spare Fast Attack slots to split up its buggies
anyway). Points changes to all the Boys is awesome, cheaper Kill Rigs are scary,
and 4-point Gretchin combo excellently with the Secondary changes. Orks will
benefit substantially from being able to use multiple faction-specific
Secondaries, they were already pretty keen on taking a Battalion, and a number
of their natural predators just got heavily impacted.
Goff pressure builds were already making top tables, even if
they weren’t beating the Tyranids they found there. With these changes and the
decline of the existing Top Four factions, expect to hear the sounds of the
Waaaaaaagh at many a tournament!
Loser: Harlequins
As one melee faction rises, another declines. Unlike the
‘death by a thousand cuts’ suffered by their Craftworlds cousins, the
Harlequins suffered more of a ‘death by a baseball bat to the face’ nerf. The
points changes were irrelevant, they didn’t care too much about the Nephilim
Secondary changes, and it’s easy enough to build a single-Battalion Harlequins
list. The Balance Dataslate, on the other hand, was absolutely rough. Going
from 3-5 free rerolls down to 0-2 is a massive, massive nerf, putting it well
below abilities like Strands of Fate or Miracle Dice. This is most impactful
for the Solitaire and the Boats, who really relied on those Luck rerolls to
survive. The Troupes are still just as good as ever, but the stuff around them
has gone down in value a lot.
On the flipside, the changes to Saedaths affects the Troupes
much more then the Boats. Light being nerfed is a pretty minor deal, as most of
why you took that sub-faction was for the advance/shoot and stratagem anyway. Hit-Transhuman
is nice, but it comes up so much less often than you’d think. Now… it’ll come
up even less often. Dark, on the other hand, suffered hard from the change to
‘mortals on death’ instead of ‘fight on death.’ There are circumstances in
which it’s equivalent or better, but by and large it’s going to be a
big reduction in that Saedath’s capacity to double-trade on people. On
the plus side, now Twilight looks a little bit more appealing as a replacement.
Dark is still better in the AoC meta, but not by quite as much.
These changes are big, and affect every aspect of the Harlequin
faction. There are probably still powerful builds in the book, and it’s always
been a faction that rewards skilled operators, but these changes really
shouldn’t be underestimated. I agree with Art of War’s assessment that
Harlequin winrates are probably going down at least 10% in the coming months. The
age of Clown Dominance may finally be coming to an end.
Winner: Space Marines (all flavours)
I’m lumping all the Marines in together because a lot of
their changes overlap. More/better faction-specific Secondaries is great for
every flavour of Marine, the points cuts open up a few new options to the right
builds, and the top dogs of the meta have been taken down a few pegs. In
general, I think that the relative pecking order of Marine builds (i.e. Blood
Angels at the top, Imperial Fists at the bottom) will stay pretty unchanged,
but that whole pecking order will be slightly more likely to get Top Fours than
before.
Some special shoutouts go to Blood Angels, who got some
inexplicable points drops to their best units, and Ultramarines, who should be
looking at their special characters with a lot more interest now. Grey
Knights, who were previously poised for tournament success, are now just a bit
more poised thanks to the Tyranids/Aeldari nerfs. And in general, most Marine
builds that were interested in holding the centre with durable models will be
relieved to have a metagame that doesn’t just pick up those models trivially.
Loser: T’au
One faction who will definitely be mourning their lost
capacity for ‘picking up whole Marine armies in a turn’ will be the T’au. The
Nephilim changes were pretty net-neutral, as the listbuilding changes weren’t a
huge issue for them and their strong faction-specific Secondaries mitigated the
loss of TtL significantly. The Dataslate also stayed pretty unchanged, but the
points nerfs, ooooooh boy.
I think some T’au players are overstating their impact (no
tournament builds were running 19 Crisis Suits all with two plasma and an
airburst, it’s fine guys), but they still hurt. Most competitive builds will
probably go up a couple hundred points, or need to drop a few Crisis to fit. I
imagine this will lead to an increased reliance on Hammerheads and Skyrays
(already seeing some breakthrough success) for heavy firepower, while the
Crisis transition to CIBs and other smaller weaponry to mop up the medium
targets. These lists will be a step down from the previous firepower bonanzas,
but they’ll still have plenty of Kroot/Breachers/Hounds to play the mission. Once
they realise that the top factions around them have also been scaled down a
lot, T’au players will probably be fine.
The exception is if you were running triple Stormsurges.
Games Workshop has politely informed you that you should Cease and Desist. This
is your final warning.
Winner: Knights
Who’s happy to see a few less T’au builds on top tables?
These guys. Admittedly, that comes with the caveat that all the surviving T’au
builds will be packing lots of railguns, but it’s still great news for the superior
stompy mechs.
Much more importantly, the Nephilim changes are excellent
for Knights of both flavours. The biggest weakness of these lists was an
atrocious Secondary game, and now they can pick all the faction-specific
Secondaries they want. For Imperial Knights, this probably translates directly
into Yield No Ground and Renew the Oaths becoming default picks, with either
Honour of the House or Grind (maybe) being slotted in depending on matchups.
For Chaos Knights, I think Storm of Darkness and Ruthless Tyranny are the
standard two, and I imagine more builds summoning in a Herald to make the
Warpcraft Secondaries more viable.
The CP changes probably mean we’ll be seeing 1-2 big Knights
at the most, but I think most top players considered that the optimal number anyway. With no changes to points or in the Dataslate, and with a metagame much
dialed back at the top, be ready for the stompiest of boys to be hitting the top
tables.
Loser: Daemons
Remember how I said Chaos Knights might be looking to summon
in some Heralds to do Warpcraft Secondaries for them? Well, that’s about the
most you’ll see of the Daemons. Realistically, the same builds they’ve been
using could still sneak the occasional Top Four off the back of good matchups
and skilled players, but the faction as a whole is pretty much dead in the
water.
I’m also going to briefly mention Genestealer Cults here,
which is more than Games Workshop did for them. The Secondary changes are
probably helpful for GSC, so they might rise a little, but by and large they’re
looking pretty forgotten.
Winner: Astra Militarum
Yeah Guard! Leman Russes are going to be absolute chores to
kill now, and the Secondary buffs are much appreciated. Points drops were very
warranted, and Scions may plausibly have some real builds open to them.
Of course, none of this changes the fact that Guard struggle
to play the mission, have no real combat threats (although I think Bullgryn
went down, which is nice) and have no defence to the Bad Touch of Doom. I
expect Guard winrates to do what they normally do after a buff, which is to
crumble still further. It is tradition. Also, Veterans just got an accidental
points hike, and I’m here for it.
Loser: Custodes
Thes Adeptus Custodes took some minor points hits, and their Secondary
game is probably even weaker now. On the plus side, the meta has a few less
Tyranids and Aeldari to clown on them, so it probably almost balances out.
Winner: Adeptus Mechanicus
I mean, they’re definitely stronger now than they
were a week ago. I’d be surprised if the AdMech winrate doesn’t go up a little
bit, but thing still don’t exactly look great. If anything, the biggest win
here is that Siegler will likely abandon them totally for the Necrons,
increasing their chances of a more meaningful boost next time around.
Winner: Death Guard
Happily, I’ve had to abandon my winner-loser-winner alternation
because too many of the game’s neglected factions received boosts in the
update. There are just too many winners!
Death Guard received some noticeable shots in the arm (shots
of pure pestilence, presumably) this week. The mission changes are broadly
positive, with their improved faction-specific Secondaries more than making up for the
demise of TtL and Stranglehold. The lovely Dataslate changes from last time
stuck around, and the points drops across the board are real. Plague Marines go
down up to 40% with their wargear options becoming free, while cheaper
Terminators and Poxwalkers mean there will be a lot more Death Guard on the
table. Finally, the big drops to vehicles make it much easier to build lists
that actually play the mission, and aren’t just a blob of basically-immobile
wounds.
I don’t expect Death Guard to be suddenly winning
tournaments, as their lack of speed creates weaknesses that a good opponent can
generally exploit. But at least now they should be properly fulfilling their
function as a gatekeeper army, rather than ‘the army that the tournament winner
beat in Round 2’.
Winner: Thousand Sons
Their Secondaries got a little better, and they got some
mild points reductions. Magnus is probably an option now for some builds, and
otherwise the faction basically stayed the same. Honestly, that’s all they
needed, as this faction was already close behind the big boys. With their fall,
the Sons of Prospero shall rise.
Winner: Drukhari
The Secondary changes are probably a net win for Drukhari,
they can field as many Patrols as they want with ease, and Wyches went down a
point. These guys have always been pretty close to the top anyway, so they’re
just excited to hear their cousins got knocked down a peg or two.
Winner: 40k, and all of us
It’s been a dark time for the meta of late. Tyranids have
been beyond busted, and while I’ve loved playing Craftworlds and Harlequins, I
can acknowledge that they could be pretty oppressive at times. There were more
‘haves’ than the meta has had in awhile, but there were an awful lot of ‘have
nots’.
Now, all of the most problematic factions have been
massively impacted, while almost every other faction has been given a leg up. The
playing field looks to be far, far more even than we’ve had in a very long
time; honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the most balanced
meta the game has ever had.
There were definitely still missteps with this release. The
relic/WLT change is pretty unpopular, Daemons getting nothing is baffling, some
of the ways that the top factions were taken down irritate me a bit, and there
are a lot of individual units that could have done with bigger points changes
(up and down, Baharroth could definitely have gone up by a lot more). But even
there, the shift to online points is a seismic one, that should make it
so much easier for GW to keep the game on track. They’ve shown themselves much
more willing to make real changes to the game, and even to do so without
totally invalidating whole armies. It’s a wild, wild time.
I hope you enjoyed this extremely long article on
all the winners and losers of the new changes. There is a lot to process here,
and I’m sure some of these changes will combine in ways none of us (least of
all me) have foreseen. In case you couldn’t tell, I’m super excited for the new
meta, and really keen to get into some more 40k! Ironically, I’ve just gotten a
new job, so my available time is decreasing in proportion to my excitement to
play. Still, there’s a lot to look forward to, and I hope to have some new
battle reports out to you in the coming days!
Until then, may your balance changes always be as good as this!
Comments
Post a Comment