New Balance Dataslate Winners and Losers

It's here!

It’s an exciting time in the 40k community, because GW have just released their new Balance Dataslate and oh boy is it a doozie. Available here, it contains several changes to the core rules and an arsenal of faction-specific tweaks, ready to lift up suffering factions and gently chastise the meta’s problem children. So who’s a winner, and who gets to angrily post on Reddit for the next six months?

Before we dive into that, I’d like to quickly note my methodology for deciding winners and losers of the Dataslate: if the faction’s winrate/number of Top Fours is likely to go up then they’re a winner, and vice versa for the losers. Importantly, I’m not ranking factions based on whether they could have expected more buffs or nerfs than they received. Yes, Orks could have perhaps done with some tweaks in their favour and might be justifiably upset to have missed out, but if their winrate is likely to improve then they’re a winner in my eyes. Speaking of which, let’s dive into my first winner, which is…

 

Winner: Every faction that wasn’t mentioned

'More Marines in the meta, you say. How intriguing...'

We’ll cover this in more detail below, but all three of the biggest meta menaces (T’au, Custodes and especially Harlequins) copped some pretty substantial nerfs in this Dataslate. To be sure, anyone wearing power armour is suddenly a lot harder to deal with, and Astra Militarum gunlines can actually hurt things now. But on balance, if your goal is to win a bunch of games with a faction like Orks, Necrons, AdMech or Drukhari then that goal is a lot more achievable now. Worse matchups against Marines are nowhere near as big a deal as making games against the meta Top 3 legitimately winnable. If your faction didn’t make it into the Dataslate, then that’s probably great news for you.

 

Loser: Harlequins

These look a lot nicer than the hastily-drybrushed ones most people have been bringing

Starting with perhaps the most dramatic change: someone running a classic Light Voidweaver spam suddenly needs to find about ~435 points to run a legal army. That’s, uh, quite something. Alongside that, one of their most important (and oppressive) defensive tools is probably out of the picture, and their super sniper can’t just casually put 6-12 hits onto enemy characters every turn. In exchange for all that, Troupes picked up CORE, a change absolutely no one could have ever predicted.

Honestly, these changes are what needed to happen, and I’m super excited that GW seem to have actually gone hard enough with the points/rules changes to matter while not obliterating the faction from orbit. Troupe spam is almost entirely untouched (or is vastly improved if you weren’t playing them as CORE!), there are probably lists that still go hard on Voidweavers but with a lot less stuff around them, and the faction is likely to be way less oppressive than before. My experience with the Harlequins has largely been that I just had too much on the field: I could take a punch, lose some models and still have plenty left to roll over my opponent. Now with three Voidweavers stripped out of the meta list, that’s likely to be a lot harder to pull off.

Great stuff here, love to see it.

 

Winner: Astra Militarum

For the Emperor! For Cadia! For autowounds on sixes and free plasma guns!

Guard hype! Guard can kill stuff again! GUARD HYPE!

I think we should all take a moment to appreciate the misery our Guard friends have gone through over the last couple years, and be happy that they finally receive some solace. Lasguns are not suddenly going to be evaporating Stormsurges, but the combination of unnerfed indirect fire, buffs to all your guns and free upgrades on Infantry Squads is a huge shot in the arm. They’re still going to struggle with having a playstyle antithetical to how 9th edition wants you to play, but at least now they might be good at sitting back and shooting.

Loser: T’au

It's a sad day to be a Broadside, but a happy day for everyone else(thirdeyenuke.com)

Speaking of sitting back and shooting, the gunline’s poster children have copped some thoroughly-deserved nerfs. No extra AP on Mont’ka will hit especially hard in the Marine matchup, and makes a lot of their AP-1 firepower very sad. The changes to indirect also hit those same units, with AFP Crisis and SMS Broadsides now likely being relegated to a ‘sometimes treat’ instead of ‘the reason you can’t field infantry anymore’. Broadsides are triply impacted, losing CORE and thus access to a bunch of rerolls and the Ethereal’s defensive buffs. Crisis Bodyguards and Commanders will be super (deservedly) sad about the changes to Bodyguard, and every kind of Enclaves will find 9” a lot less forgiving than the previous 12” range on their free Markerlights.

Again, all these changes basically needed to happen, and they combine to make facing T’au a lot less of a miserable prospect. The potential concern, as with Harlequins to some extent, is that the changes are pretty focussed on a certain type of build and leave a lot of other things untouched. Triple Stormsurges, Crisis Suit heavy builds that were leaning more on direct firepower than indirect, and other similar forces will all be fairly unchanged by these nerfs. That’s not the worst thing, as it at least means T’au players can pivot into new builds, but hopefully it doesn’t leave the faction needing a second round of substantial nerfs.

 

Winner: Marines/Sisters

Maybe this will make the Phobos AoR competitive? Maybe? Nah

If you’re wearing power armour, then it’s a great time to be alive.

Bog standard Marines of all stripes are likely to be feeling much better about the world with their knockoff 2+ save. This affects basically everything in the Codex, but will be felt most on things with a strong armour save and no invulnerable save, and will be most pronounced in effect against medium AP weapons like Shuriken Cannons. I don’t know that it will be enough to throw Imperial Fists onto the top tables, but it certainly makes the Iron Hands and Ultramarines builds that have been doing well a lot more appealing.

Chaos Space Marines probably won’t benefit quite as much, as their lack of the second wound means their troops tend to evaporate pretty quickly anyway. They will still appreciate the extra resilience on their vehicles and Terminators, but I think only a new Codex will truly fix these guys.

Thousand Sons and Death Guard, on the other hand, are suddenly looking much more appealing. Both of these armies lean heavily on Terminators (the slimy versions of which just picked up ObSec!), and 3 wound Terminators are about the best possible recipients of Armour of Contempt. Combined with the general toning down of the metagame, these are awesome changes that make these factions look genuinely appealing in a way they haven’t in a long time.

Finally, Sisters cop a pretty substantial nerf via the end of Bodyguard shenanigans, but gain a bunch of extra Miracle Dice and a bit more resilience across their army. Like Chaos Space Marines, that extra resilience doesn’t mean as much here as on the two wound Marines 5 Zephyrim or Retributors are still going to die to anything that can see them, no matter what their armour save is but it’s absolutely still a nice change.

In general, I think we can all be happy that power armour is legitimately useful now. As commented by u/Sneekat: ‘Deep within the Nachmund sector... an STC with the on switch for power armour has just been found.’

 

Loser: Custodes

Expect to see more of this and less of the bikes

Alas, not everyone is getting more resilient. Emperor’s Auspice becoming a once-per-game thing will dramatically reduce the defensive tools available to Custodes players, and everything that isn’t infantry (i.e. the bikes and dreads that were doing most of the heavy lifting in existing Custodes builds) will hate losing both of their defensive strats. The various characters and terminators that had been supplementing these units will also feel the loss of ObSec quite dearly, especially against things like Harlequins or ObSec Tyranid monsters.

In general, I imagine that Custodes will recover from this and still be a solid army, but they’re likely to have to pivot their builds substantially. Troop-heavy lists like Emmisaries Sagittarum spam or Solar Watch Custodians are likely to creep up in value, and Shadowkeepers will also gain a lot from bringing that second defensive strat.

Big changes to the golden boys, and once again, it’s for the best. Custodes players, it’ll be okay Everyone else, time to rejoice.

 

Winner: Tyranids



I foresee a lot of big bugs in the months to come

Loudest (and perhaps most ominous) in their rejoicing should be the Tyranids players. Escaping any nerfs to their super-pushed book by virtue of it not yet being out, the bugs are now in the enviable position of watching all their rivals fall while they stay basically steady. The nerf to indirect is almost purely a win for them, and Tyrant Guard are tough enough that the Bodyguard nerf shouldn’t affect them too badly. More importantly, the fact that all the scariest meta builds are suddenly much weaker leaves the universe thematically open for the Tyranids to sweep in and devour it. A sudden reduction in Prism Cannons and Broadsides in the meta is absolutely awesome for the big bugs in particular.

If there’s an off-note in this otherwise excellent Balance Dataslate, it’s that there was no clarification regarding Crusher Stampede, the Leviathan supplement and the new ‘Nids. I can imagine things going very, very wrong if those three are allowed to be used together, and at the moment they basically just can. Not great.


Loser: Knights

It's fine guys, you'll get your own oppressive Codex in a few weeks
I know, they'll probably get something better in their Codex, and it's apparently just around the corner, but still. It's gonna be a sad few weeks for the big stompy boys. 
 

Winner: Asuryani

'Who needs indirect fire when you can just teleport after shooting?'

On the other hand, the Harlequins’ less oppressive cousins will be pretty happy with the Dataslate. Asuryani indirect fire should still be competitive even with the changes, Jinx plus a bunch of AP-0 firepower is one of the most efficient counters to Armour of Contempt, and all of the other S-Tier factions suffered massive nerfs. Most excitingly, the reduced power of indirect fire makes things like Warp Spiders and Swooping Hawks vastly more exciting. Great, that’s what the metagame needed, more firepower with no interactivity. Lovely.

 I expect to see Asuryani players lean away from Nightspinners and Shadow Weavers a little, and the days of souping in some Voidweavers via Travelling Players are probably done, but don’t be surprised if the Asuryani Fast Attack slots to carry them to the top of many tournaments.

 

Winner: The Metagame


No matter what comes, at least the Goonhammer writers won't have to endure much more of this

There’s been a lot of negativity in the community recently (largely for good reason), and there were some very high expectations for this Dataslate. Probably as a result of that, it’s met with a reaction that can be called ‘mixed’ at best. Lots of players wanted more for their factions, or are resentful of the nerfs they’ve suffered. There are definitely some things I would have liked to see in this Dataslate that didn’t make it in, and I hope the metagame doesn’t suffer too badly from their absence.

But I think it’s also worthwhile acknowledging quite how much of an improvement has been made here. The three most clearly oppressive armies in the game have taken really substantial hits, the two most abused mechanics have been tidied up, and a bunch of lagging factions have been given solid shots in the arm. It’s a long way from perfect, but I think GW deserves some praise for how much of a genuine effort for balance this seems to represent.

Now, if they can just release an early FAQ for the ‘Nids, and maybe work a little on toning things down before they’re released, then the future looks extremely bright. Or grim, dark and full of only war. Whatever you’re into.

Come on GW, you know what to do...

I hope you enjoyed my hot takes on who’s made out like bandits and who’s going back to the cupboard after this Balance Dataslate. To celebrate, I’ll be putting out no less than THREE battle reports over the next three days, simply because they’re already written up and I want them posted before they’re totally irrelevant.

Until then, may your faction always be winners from the Dataslates!

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